Category Archives: Mark Dayton

The Morning After

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After yesterday’s enactment of Minnesota’s gay marriage law, I was pleased to wake up this morning to see that:

1)   The sun rose, Armageddon had not arrived, and fire, brimstone and locusts appeared to be in short supply;

2)   I was still married, despite the unsuccessful defense of my marriage;

3)   Thousands of Minnesotans had not converted to gayism, as per the alleged “Gay Agenda.”

This had to come as a relief to opponents of same-sex marriage, who had long feared the aforementioned.  With those concerns allayed, I hope they’ll now be less stressed out about marriage equality.   If you’re a gay marriage supporter, today’s a new day.  If you’re not, life goes on.

Conflicted About the Tobacco Tax? Listen to the Tobacco Lobby

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The debate at the State Capitol over increasing the tax on tobacco has played out the same way year after year.   It goes like this:

Public Health Claims.  Public health advocates point to price elasticity research showing that taxing cigarettes, and thereby increasing the cost of cigarettes, is the most effective way to motivate smokers to quit and prevent teens and young adults from starting down the path to addiction.  Consequently, increasing the tax on tobacco is the single most effective way to reduce tobacco-related death and suffering, and the related costs.

Smokers’ and Political Reporters’ Claims.  But smokers, and political reporters, portray the tobacco tax very differently.  They describe the tobacco tax as nothing more than a politically expedient way to raise money.  Because only about 19% of Minnesotans smoke, they say politicians are just picking on an oppressed minority.  Moreover, smokers’ rights advocates scoff at arguments about the tobacco tax reducing tobacco use, saying “people will continue to smoke regardless of the tax.”

What About The Tobacco Industry Experts?

 But what about  tobacco industry officials themselves?  In their private unguarded moments, what do they say about the impact of the tobacco tax on smoking behaviors?  After all, probably no one has studied this issue more carefully and thoroughly than them.

Fortunately, we don’t have to speculate.  We know.  The answer can be found in an office park in north Minneapolis.  As absurd as that sounds, I’m not kidding. To be precise, the answer is at 980 East Hennepin Avenue.  This is the entirely underwhelming home of something called the “Minnesota Tobacco Document Depository.”

A little background might be helpful.  A few years back, you may recall that Minnesota went after the tobacco industry over violations of Minnesota consumer fraud and anti-trust laws.  As a result of that action, the tobacco industry agreed to pay Minnesota a $6.1 billion settlement.

Unfortunately, Minnesota state legislators have shamelessly frittered away most of the lawsuit proceeds like drunken sailors.  However, we do have something left over from that lawsuit settlement — a mountain of internal tobacco industry documents that tell us precisely what the tobacco industry has learned about a wide variety of subjects.

So, I looked back at some of those documents.  It turns out that tobacco industry experts  know a lot about the impact of tobacco taxation on smoking behavior, probably more than anyone in the Minnesota Legislature could ever know.

So, let’s let the industry experts speak for themselves:

“When the tax goes up, industry loses volume and profits as many smokers cut back.” – Philip Morris, 1994

“Of all the concerns, there is one – taxation – that alarms us the most. While marketing restrictions and public and passive smoking [restrictions] do depress volume, in our experience taxation depresses it much more severely…” – Phillip Morris, 1985

“If prices were 10% higher, 12-17 incidence [youth smokng] would be 11.9% lower.” – RJ Reynolds, 1982

“It is clear that price has a pronounced effect on the smoking prevalence of teenagers, and that the goals of reducing teenage smoking and balancing the budget would both be served by increasing the Federal excise tax on cigarettes.” – Philip Morris, 1981

“A high cigarette price, more than any other cigarette attribute, has the most dramatic impact on the share of the quitting population…price, not tar level, is the main driving force for quitting.” – Philip Morris, 1993

There you have it.  If Minnesota legislators want to motivate more smokers to quit and discourage young people from starting, increasing the tobacco tax works like a charm.

On the other hand, if  legislators want to keep the price of cigarettes lower — in the name of gallantly “protecting smokers” — more Minnesotans will remain smoking, become addicted to smoking, and ultimately suffer and die from smoking-related diseases.

That’s not some public health do-gooder’s earnest claim.  That’s not some political reporters’ cynical analysis of legislative gamesmanship.  That’s straight from the camel’s mouth.

Loveland

Note:  The author was the communications director for the Minnesota Attorney General’s office during part of the tobacco lawsuit referenced in this post.

Note:  This post was featured in Politics in Minnesota’s Best of the Blogs and MinnPost’s Blog Cabin.

The Real Problem With Vikings Stadium Financing

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Albert Einstein said “anyone who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new.”  In the wake of reports that new e-gambling revenue is proving to be insufficient to fund the new Vikings stadium, Governor Mark Dayton and other stadium proponents recently have been heard mumbling similar sentiments.

With any mistake, and this one was a doozy, the important thing is to learn the correct lesson to carry into the future.  This is how that debate currently is playing out in Minnesota:

 What is the lesson(s) State leaders should learn from this revenue shortfall episode?

A. Never rely on private sector vendor input for fiscal note estimates.
B.  Never rely on huckster billionaire owner-endorsed revenue sources.
C.  Never believe anything that any lying stadium supporter says.
D.  Be patient, the revenue will be there eventually.

Over the last few weeks, all of these answers have been aggressively pushed in the news media, legislative arena and blogosphere.   Stadium opponents tend to go with one or more of the first three answers, while stadium supporters mostly go with answer D.

As Minnesotans try to identify the correct lesson to guide future decisionmaking, I’d argue for the addition of another option:

E.  If you really need a definite amount of revenue right away, don’t choose a never-before used revenue source.

Let’s be honest:  There is a very good reason why the e-gambling vendor, the Wilfs, the Governor and legislative stadium supporters were all fantastically wrong about the amount of revenue e-gambling could raise in the short-run:  There was no consumer demand history to guide estimates.  Zero. Zilch. Nada.

Nobody could possibly know if these games would be a boom or a bust, because the games had never been put in front of consumbers elsewhere.  They didn’t even exist yet.

Because of that lack of consumer demand history, the fiscal note for the Vikings Stadium bill was not an estimate.  Estimates are based on real world data and observations.  The fiscal note was not even a hybrid “guesstimate.”  It was, out of necessity, a flat-out guess.

Now, you may believe that the guessing that happened during the 2012 legislative session was ignorant, misleading, naïve, or utopian.  But the core problem here is that leaders never should have chosen a revenue source that necessitated 100% data-free guesswork.

If we learn that lesson from this historical episode, we will be a wiser people than if we delude ourselves that this was all some vast Wilf/Dayton/vendor/Legislature conspiracy.

I love a good conspiracy theory as much as the next guy.  But in this case, the conspiracy theories make absolutely no sense.  After all, why would Wilf, Dayton and a bipartisan group of legislators intentionally choose a revenue source that they knew would be inadequate to pay for something that they really, really wanted to build as soon as possible?  Why would they intentionally do something that they knew would force them to return, hat in hand, to a legislative arena that has proven for over a decade to be a hell-scape for stadium supporters?

No, there was no conspiracy here.  The foundational problem was that leaders picked a revenue tool that was a) voluntary and b) had no track record, and these two things made a reliable fiscal note impossible, for a project where we really needed a reliable fiscal note.

That is the genesis of this mess, not conspiratorial leaders.

- Loveland

Note:  This post was  featured in Politics in Minnesota’s Best of the Blogs.

Why Wealthy Minnesotans Can Pay More

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Taxing millionaires.  Surcharging millionaires.  Raising the minimum wage.

For the casual observer who hasn’t done their homework, I can see how this might be confused with “class warfare” waged by mean DFLers intent on punishing rich people.

But here’s the thing about warfare.  You can’t take a quick glance at a battlefield and identify the aggressors.  For instance, an observer flying over Normandy Beach on June 6, 1944 couldn’t reasonably conclude “those mean Americans storming that beach down there are obviously wreckless war mongers.”

After all, what about the blitzkreig and Pearl Harbor, right?  You have to know at least a bit about the prelude to an event to be able to make informed conclusions about the event.

So it goes with the  “class warfare” charges flying around the 2013 Minnesota Legislature.   Observers who say the DFL has launched an all-out “class war” against wealthy Minnesotans need to look at the prelude to the policy.

Context

As the following chart shows, in recent years the wealthiest Minnesotans have been doing very well, thank you very much.  At the same time, poor and middle-income Minnesotans have been doing relatively poorly.

“The rich are getting richer, and the poor are getting poorer” isn’t just a cheap slogan.  In Minnesota right now, it’s the demonstrable truth.

As billionaire Warren Buffet put it:

“There’s class warfare, all right, but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning.”

That little piece of historical context explains why wealthy Minnesotans are being asked by DFL legislators to do the most to address Minnesota’s structural deficit problem. Wealthy people are being asked to pay more, because they have by far the most capacity to do more.  This terrific infographic video explains the breathtaking degree of concentration of wealth in America:

This is important context for understanding the DFL proposals to increase taxes on the rich and raise the minimum wage, just as the blitzkrieg is important context for understanding the storming of Normandy.

Perspective

Along with reporting the context, we also have to keep the proper perspective about what the DFL’s proposals would, and would not, do.

Despite the hyperventilation on the right, nobody is proposing communist-style income equality.  Not even close.  The DFL legislators are talking about a very modest  adjustment for the wealthiest Minnesotans, an adjustment that will still leave them, far-and-away, the wealthiest Minnesotans.

To summarize, if there is a class war going on, poor- and middle-income families didn’t start it.  But I reject the assertion that there is a “war” of any type going on.  What the DFL proposes is a modest adjustment to a system that has gotten badly out-of-whack.

That’s not war.  That’s wisdom.

- Loveland

Note:  This post was also featured in Politics in Minnesota’s Best of the Blogs.

“Democrat Party:” The GOP’s Childish Name Game

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We all remember those times on the playground when kids’ names would be twisted into teasing word play.  Private parts and mental health were common themes, as I recall.  Woe be unto the unfortunate child born with a name like “Seymour Butz.”

During childhood, the motives behind the name-oriented word play varied from benign to bullying.  But whatever the motive, it was rarely welcomed by the recipient, and was, above all else, childish.

So surely adults have left all that infantile behavior behind, right?

Well, take a look at recent blog posts on leading Minnesota conservative blog aggregator “True North:”

  • Bill Blahn refers to “the new Democrat majority.”
  • Matt Abe complains about “constant attacks from the Democrat Party.”
  • Nancy LaRoche speaks of “hypocrisy in the Democrat party.”
  • Mitch Berg suggests :  “the best thing the Democrat Party can do is bar its members from being on Twitter unless they pass an intelligence and literacy test.”
  • Jeff Kolb writes of “contemporaries in the Democrat Party.”
  • Former GOP gubernatorial nominee Tom Emmer and Bob Davis refer to “the leadership of the Democrat party.”

Notice a trend?  You’ll find the same trend coming from conservative talk radio guru Rush Limbaugh, former Minnesota GOP Chair Tony Sutton, GOP House Speaker John Boehner and other issuers of Republican talking points.

This practiced use of the epithet “Democrat Party” isn’t correct, and it usually isn’t a mistake.  Instead, this is a remarkably jejune name game that adult Republicans have been playing for decades.   Type the words “Democrat Party” into Google, and you will get 3.4 million hits to peruse, and many of them are Republicans intentionally misusing the name of the “DemocratIC Party.”

The motive behind this language misuse?  It is no different from the motive of the name-oriented word play on the playground, and it is no less childish.

I’ll leave it to grammarians and editors to debate whether, in this particular usage, the D-word in front of “Party” should be a noun or an adjective.  I’m not the least bit interested in that debate, because the only thing that really matters is what the owners of the name prefer to call themselves.  The members of the Democratic Party have made it abundantly clear that they chooses to call themselves the Democratic Party, so that is what mature adults should call them.  (See Golden Rule.)

Think I’m overreacting ?  What would Minnesotans think if Governor Dayton started calling the Republican Party the “Republic Party,” long after Republicans had repeatedly pointed out the actual name of their party?  What if President Obama referred to the “Republic Party” in a solemn State of the Union Address, as George W. Bush did when he said “Democrat Party” in his 2007 address?  Wouldn’t that seem more than a little puerile?

At a time when the national Republicans are taking stock of the things that are sullying their “brand” with moderate voters who are tired of infantile political game-playing, I’d suggest they do some soul-searching about this silly little party custom.

There are a lot of things that are curious about this “Democrat Party” usage, not the least of which is that it’s not a particularly clever insult.  In fact, I have never been entirely sure what was even meant by it.  Perhaps Republicans wish to point out that the Democratic Party is not the embodiment of “democracy,” because “democracy” is a popular notion?

New Yorker commentator Hendrik Hertzberg observed “There’s no great mystery about the motives behind this deliberate misnaming. ‘Democrat Party’ is a slur, or intended to be—a handy way to express contempt. Aesthetic judgments are subjective, of course, but ‘Democrat Party’ is jarring verging on ugly. It fairly screams ‘rat.’”

At the end of the day, I don’t even think a lot of Republicans know why they are habitually dropping the “-ic,” other than they know that it annoys their foes.  In other words, the dropping of the “ic” is motivated by the same thing that motivated the name game insults when we were churlish children on the playground.

Ick indeed.

- Loveland

Note:  This post was also featured as a “best of the best” in MinnPost’s Blog Cabin.

 

Norm Who?

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Not so long ago, one Norman Bertram Coleman was, well, kind of a big deal.  You may remember him:

  • From 1994-2002, he was a GOP mayor of Minnesota’s second largest city, a DFL stronghold.
  • He was the GOP nominee for Minnesota Governor in 1998.
  • He was MInnesota’s United States Senator from 2003-2009.
  • He came up in national veepstakes conversations.
  • He had perhaps the best name recognition of any Minnesota Republican.
  • He was one of the most talented Minnesota pols of his generation.
  • He was arguably the best political fundraiser in the state.
  • He was the only reasonably prominent Republican who was thinking about running against current DFL Governor Mark Dayton.

But yesterday, when Senator Coleman announced to his followers via Twitter that he has decided not to run for Governor in 2014, his political obituary got the political equivalent of crickets in the Star Tribune –  three column inches on the very back page of the Local section, imbedded in the weather coverage.

This news media dissing is partially a function of how light and casual political coverage has gotten in the Star Tribune, and partially a function of Mr. Coleman’s devalued political stock.  The relative silence of the Minnesota news media was deafening.

- Loveland

Note:  This post was also featured in Politics in Minnesota’s Best of the Blogs.

Correction:  I incorrectly referred to Mr. Coleman as a Republican when he was mayor of St. Paul, but a reader/participant correctly notes that Coleman was a DFLer for part of his mayoral service (1993-1996), and a Republican for the remainder of his service (1999-2001).

Dayton Lets His Droll Out For The Dude

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Minnesota Governor Mark Dayton’s approval rating is fairly high right now, though his backing of an unpopular sales tax on a wide range of services may be eating into that a bit.

Still, the awkwardly earnest introvert has always been a difficult guy for Minnesotans to get to know, and he hasn’t been known for his sense of humor.  That’s why it was such a treat to see this 7-minute video of the Governor playing along with a gag video for Children’s Hospitals and Clinics of Minnesota.

Dayton gave as good as he got with a comedic host called The Dude, an amalgam of The Dude charcter in the movie The Big Lebowsky and the Wayne character in the SNL-based  Wayne’s World movies.  The Dude tried very hard to upstage the Banterer-in-Chief, and, quiet amazingly, failed.

Well played, Governor, well played.

- Loveland

Star Tribune Survey Delivers Mixed News for Dayton Tax Package

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For Governor Dayton’s bold package of tax increases, there was more good news than bad in the Star Tribune’s Minnesota Poll, released yesterday.

Bad News for Dayton

  • Bye Bye Professional Services Tax.  Only 28% of Minnesotans support a sales tax on business services.  With only 36% of DFLers supporting this idea, and an army of special interests mobilized against it, this part of the Governor’s budget is in deep political trouble.

So-So News for Dayton

The news is not universally awful on the services sales tax front, though:

  • Personal Services Tax?  Maybe.  While a sales tax on professional services is unpopular (28% support), a sales tax on “personal services such as haircuts and auto repair” has considerably more support (45% support, 48% oppose).  Interestingly, the difference between the DFL (44% support) and GOP (40% support) is nearly within the poll’s 3.5% margin of error.  To me, this is the most surprising finding.  This is politically difficult, but it may not be out-of-reach yet.

Good News for Dayton

On most other issues where the Governor and the GOP are battling fiercely, Minnesotans are siding with the Governor:

  • Wealthy Tax Rallies the Base.  A  majority (54%), though not an overwhelming one, support “raising state income taxes on married couples with taxable income over $250,000 and single filers with taxable income over $150,000.”  There is a ginormous partisan gap on this issue – 82% support among DFLers, and 37% support among GOPers.  Independents are in a statistical dead heat – 43% support and 45% oppose.  This is the defining partisan issue of our times.
  • All Over It Like A Cheap Suit.  About half (49%) of Minnesotans support instituting a sales tax on clothing items costing more than $100, while 42% oppose.  Even 44% of Republicans support this strategy, along with two-thirds of DFLers.  Interestingly, women (57% support) are much more likely to support the clothing sales tax proposal than men (40% support).
  • Last Call for Alcohol.  If Dayton, who has been open about the fact that he is a recovering alcoholic, needs to backfill for the loss of revenue from the demise of the services sales tax , an alcohol tax is a popular alternative that Dayton has not yet embraced.  Six-out-ten (61%) Minnesotans support “raising the state tax on alcohol in place of other proposed tax increases.”  Interestingly, there is a two-to-one gender gap on this issue, with women more likely to say “cheers” to the idea.
  • Tobacco Tax Support A Foregone Conclusion.  The Star Tribune didn’t even bother to poll on the Governor’s lifesaving tobacco tax proposal, probably because the public has been so overwhelmingly supportive in past polls.

Bottom line:  While part of the services sales tax looks to be toast, Dayton has pretty solid  support for most of the rest of his tax package.  In a state where tax increases have been considered politically radioactive for many years, Dayton has  reason to feel good about that.  At the moment, the data suggest Minnesota is a fairly progressive place.

- Loveland

Teacher LIF0 Reform: Weirdest. Politics. Ever.

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Minnesota remains one of the few states in the nation that requires decisions about which public school teachers to hire, promote or  lay off to be made solely based on seniority, and not teacher performance measures, such as student progress or principal evaluations.  DFL Governor Dayton and the DFL-contolled Legislature want to keep it that way.

The DFL has faired well at the polls recently, but Minnesotans aren’t tracking with the DFL on this “last in, first out (LIFO)” issue.  The education reform group MinnCan commissioned a poll which put the following statement in front of a random sample of Minnesotans: “If teacher layoffs are required, seniority should be considered, but the primary factor in deciding which teachers to layoff should be based on teacher performance.”  An overwhelming 91% of Minnesotans support that notion (68% strongly support, 23% somewhat support), while just 9% oppose it (4% strongly oppose, 5% somewhat oppose).

The DFL majority in the Legislature  not only rejects making teacher performance the “primary factor” in layoff decisions, as the previously mentioned survey statement phrased it, it rejects making teacher performance even one of the factors considered in such decisions.

Meanwhile, the Obama Administration’s Education Secretary of Education Arne Duncan agrees with 91% of Minnesotans:

U.S. Education Secretary Arne Duncan said seniority alone shouldn’t determine which teachers are let go during budget cuts. But he wouldn’t say whether seniority should be among several factors when it comes to layoffs.

“You have to make sure the teachers that are having the biggest impact on students’ lives have the opportunity to do that work,” he said.

Duncan was responding to a direct question from WNYC about whether, all things being equal, a teacher with 10 years’ experience should stay over a teacher with one year in the event of layoffs.

Think about this odd, odd political scenario for a minute.  I can’t name another issue where the DFL leaders are simultaneously at odds with over 90% of their constituents and the popular Obama Administration. Politically speaking, that simply does not happen very often, if ever.  In fact, if anyone can name another issue in recently memory that mirrors this scenario, I’d love to hear it.  Weirdest.  Politics. Ever.

Note:  This post was also featured in Politics in Minnesota’s Best of the Blogs and MinnPost’s Blog Cabin.

Snow Birds, Not Snowed Birds

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In his 2013 budget proposal, Governor Mark Dayton proposed a “snow bird tax” as a matter of fairness:

“It’s one of the unfairnesses that somebody can spend six months and one day out of the state and pay no state personal income taxes and come back here and take advantage of all the state has to offer for five months and 29 days. So, yes, there’s a snowbird tax.”

As Fox News dutifully reported, Florida GOP Congressman Trey Radel wrote a snarky rebuttal letter a few weeks back to Governor Dayton:

“Dear Governor Mark Dayton,” Rep. Trey Radel wrote Friday (February 1, 2013). “I’m writing today to thank you. As a Floridian, I am overjoyed to hear about your plan to raise taxes on Minnesotans, most especially the so-called ‘snowbirds.’  Your proposal gives us a chance to shine here in the Sunshine State.”

Radel, argues in the letter, which appear (sic) written with pointed sarcasm to skewer higher taxes, that southwest Florida would welcome more entrepreneurs and philanthropists investing in the region. And he cited such incentives as no income taxes, investment incentives for big and small businesses and “great” public, charter and private schools.

“It’s my sincere hope your plan has just driven many Minnesotans to become year-round residents of our great state,” he wrote. “I thank you for your policy.  It draws the contrast of what is happening not only in United States today, but the world.”

It may shock you to learn that our little Pensacola pen pal is a Tea Party favorite who has called for President Obama’s impeachment over the President’s  popular gun control proposal (Note: Only 29% of Americans oppose it).

Political extremist or not, my mamma taught me that it is rude to not respond to your mail, so:

Dear Congressman Radel:

Good luck trying to draw Minnesotans to Florida year round.  After all, loyal Minnesotans know that:

Yes, we Minnesotans are pale, cold and taxed (MN is 7th highest, FL is 27th).  But Minnesota snowbirds care deeply about their health, neighbors, environment, communities, infrastructure, quality of life and grandkids’ futures. 

And every winter when they visit Florida, they are reminded that, well, you get what you pay for.

In other words, while migrating Minnesotans may be called snow birds, they’re not  easily snowed. 

Thanks for the invitation, though!

- Loveland

Note:  This post was also featured in Politics in Minnesota’s Best of the Blogs and MinnPost’s Blog Cabin.

MN Government Workers’ Pay Falls Further Behind

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The basis of much conservative commentary in Minnesota is that overpaid government employees are causing Minnesota taxpayers to be gouged.  With this week’s news that Governor Dayton is giving 35,000 state workers a raise, we can expect to hear a lot more of that type of commentary.

I have a lot of conservative friends, and I get very concerned for their health when such news causes them to hyperventilate en masse.  Because I care for them, I want to put their minds at ease.  Here goes:

Minnesota state workers make less on average than private sector employees.  According to an analysis by the Economic Policy Institute:

  • On an annual basis, full-time state and local workers and school employees are undercompensated by 11% in Minnesota, in comparison to otherwise similar private-sector workers. When comparisons are made for differences in annual hours worked, the gap remains, albeit at a smaller percentage of 7.9%.
  • Minnesota public-sector workers are more highly educated than private-sector workers; 60% of full-time Minnesota public-sector workers hold at least a four-year college degree, compared to 37% of full-time private-sector workers.
  • Minnesota state and local governments and school districts pay college-educated workers on average 25% less than do private employers.

Moreover, the 2% pay increase that Dayton approved for state workers is hardly extravagant.  In fact, it puts them a little further behind most workers.  Robert Half International recently made the following projections for private sector workers in 2013:

  • Starting salaries are expected to rise an average of 3.3 percent for accounting and finance positions…
  • Base compensation for information technology professionals is expected to increase an average of 5.3 percent…
  • Salaries for administrative professionals are anticipated to rise an average of 3.5 percent…

(By the way, the average salary of an S&P 500 CEO has been increasing a little bit more than the 2% state workers are getting.  In 2010 and 2011, it increased by 23% and 14% respectively, to an average of about $13 million per year, about 380 times the wage of the average U.S. worker.)

Finally, Minnesota taxpayers are not getting mugged at the hands of our underpaid public servants.  Far from it.  The “price of government” – the sum of all state and local government taxes and fees charged, expressed as a percentage of statewide personal income – has decreased over the years, not increased.

Even the Dayton budget, which is causing my conservative friends to threaten a mass exodus to rival the Israelites fleeing brutal Egyptian enslavement, merely flattens the downward trend line.  As this graph from Minnesota 2020 shows, the Dayton budget proposal doesn’t begin to restore us to the price of government we were paying in the late 1990s, when the economy was booming.

So for my conservative friends, I have this advice:  Read this post repeatedly, breathe into a paper bag, stay away from KTLK and True North, and rest comfortably knowing that state government workers continue to fall further behind the rest of the workforce.

- Loveland

Is Legalizing Gay Marriage a Minnesota Jobs Program?

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Governor Mark Dayton used his State of the State Address last night to endorse legalizing gay marriage in Minnesota.   And right on cue, Rep. Greg Davids (R-Preston) took the Republicans’ most predictable jab:

 ”He’d rather talk about gays getting married instead of getting Minnesotans jobs that could provide for their families.”

We’re going to be hearing a lot more of that claim from Republicans in the weeks to come, so the argument merits dissection.

Forget for a moment that Davids’ party repeatedly beat down Governor Dayton’s  job-creating bonding proposals when it controlled the Legislature.  Forget that Dayton’s 2013 budget proposal includes several items designed to create jobs:

  • $86 million in low-interest loans for businesses relocating to Minnesota;
  • $25 million for a Minnesota Job Creation Fund;
  • $30 million in transportation and housing spending linked to economic development;
  • A Vikings stadium that will put about 13,000 Minnesotans to work; and
  • A more stable tax system to make our economy more bullet proof during downturns.

Forget about all that for a moment.

Instead, let’s take a look at whether there is any direct connection between legalizing gay marriage and creating and retaining Minnesota jobs. A 2012 article from CNNMoney sheds some light on this question:

 Since gay marriage was legalized in New York state a year ago, marriage license fees, local celebrations and wedding-related purchases have boosted New York City’s economy by $259 million, Mayor Michael Bloomberg and City Council Speaker Christine Quinn announced Tuesday.

“Marriage equality has made our City more open, inclusive and free — and it has also helped to create jobs and support our economy,” Mayor Bloomberg said in a statement.

More than 8,200 same-sex marriage licenses have been issued over the past year, representing more than 10% of the 75,000 licenses issued in the city, according to a survey conducted by the City Clerk’s Office and NYC & Company, the city’s tourism and marketing organization.

The city collected $16 million in tax revenue from same-sex marriages over the past year. But weddings brought the biggest economic boost to the city, with about 67% of same-sex couples who got married in the city holding wedding receptions at venues like hotels, restaurants and catering halls throughout New York City’s five boroughs.

Same-sex couples spent an average $9,039 on their weddings, while 31% spent $10,000 or more — though that’s still not as high as the $27,021 that the average couple spends on a wedding, according to a national survey of gay and straight newlyweds from TheKnot.com.

More than 200,000 guests flocked to New York City from other parts of the state or country to partake in the celebrations. Hotels booked nearly 236,000 nights at an average rate of $275 per night. More than 40,000 wedding announcements were printed, and couples bought 47,445 wedding favors, the economic impact survey found.

Of course, in addition to the beginning we also have to consider the end.  That is, many a heterosexual can tell you that what naturally follows many weddings is divorce, and it can sometimes cost more to get out of a marriage than it costs to get into one.  Though an expansion of divorce is an unfortunate consequence of an expanded definition of marriage, divorce proceedings do generate additional economic activity.

It should be noted that Minnesota is not as populous as New York, so we would not see economic benefits anything like the New York benefits.  More to the point, equality and fairness are the more meaningful reasons Minnesota needs to legalize same-sex marriage as soon as possible, not job creation.

Still, a look at what is happening in other states with newly legalized same-sex weddings shows that the Republicans’ asssertion that same-sex marriage would have no positive impact on jobs in Minnesota is every bit as silly as their other arguments against same-sex marriage.

- Loveland

Note:  This post was also featured in Politics in Minnesota’s Best of the Blogs.

The Five Best Things About Dayton’s Budget

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Governor Mark Dayton went big and bold this week.  He took on the most powerful special interests in order to fix Minnesota’s chronic structural budget deficit problem.  Recent Minnesota Governors haven’t had the guts to do that.  This governor did.

The nitpickers are busily picking nits in Dayton’s proposal, and it’s not a perfect proposal.  But when you focus on the big picture, there is much to admire:

  • It Balances.  No gimmicks.  No shifts.  No one time revenues.  No smoke.  No mirrors.  The revenue and spending sides apparently balance.  Don’t you dare yawn about this accomplishment, because that has been a rare feat at the State Capitol in recent years.
  • It’s Balanced.  This budget does not embody  the extreme right wing’s “no new taxes,”  or the extreme left wing’s “all new taxes.”  It’s a moderate package of “some spending cuts, some spending increases, some tax increases and some tax decreases.”  While that may not play to the extremes, it’s the kind of balance that, according to polls, the vast majority of Minnesotans have been wanting.
  • It Saves Lives.  The Governor has historically worried that tobacco taxes are regressive.  This is a worthwhile thing for any lawmaker to consider.  But the flip side of that coin is that the benefits of a tobacco tax also disproportionately flow to smokers.  Because the tobacco tax is proven to lead to much more tobacco cessation and prevention, and tobacco cessation and prevention leads to much less tobacco-related suffering and death, raising the tobacco tax causes smokers to pay more, but suffer less.   It ends up being a “cruel to be kind” proposition.  The Governor dug below the surface to consider the public health implications of the change, not just the fiscal implications, and that caused him to do did right by smokers.
  • It’s Fair.  Wealthy Minnesotans pay a lower share of their incomes in state and local taxes than citizens of any other income quintile.  Dayton, a wealthy man, is righting that wrong by increasing income taxes on Minnesota’s wealthiest citizens.  To have a credible tax system, we must have everyone paying their fair share.  That’s not “soaking the rich.”  That’s unsoaking the non-rich.
  • It’s Good Government (Not Good Politics).  “Broaden the base and lower the rate” has been the mantra of non-partisan good government advocates for years.   An astute politician like Dayton understands that taxing new things is always a tough political sell.  But he did it because broadening the base and lowering the rate is the right “good government” thing to do.  I know that observation probably comes across as pollyanna-ish to cynics, but it just happens to be true in this case.

Dayton didn’t pick the easy political path.  This budget takes on a lot of special interest groups, and therefore seems likely to get pretty thoroughly shredded under the Capitol dome.  I can’t think of many Minnesota politicians with the political courage and integrity to propose a budget like Governor Dayton just did.  It’s a terrific starting point, and if even half of the major components of the Dayton budget survive the legislative kondirator on John Ireland Boulevard, that would constitute major progress.

- Loveland

Note:  This post was also selected as a “best of the best” for MinnPost’s Blog Cabin feature.

When the Going Gets Tough, the Tough Go Mansionless

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I’m not a fan of the political cheap shot, the arguments that score populist points with voters but aren’t supported with good evidence.

For instance, elected and unelected demagogues love to hammer funny sounding research projects.  While it’s great political theater to rant about spending tax dollars on “studying the sex life of a screwworm,” if you actually do your homework you will see that the public interest is indeed served by the knowledge such research generates.

Likewise, at first blush “why are we spending millions on the Minnesota Governor’s Mansion” looks to be one of those cheap shots.  In the wake of a Star Tribune news report that millions are being spent to renovate the Chief Executive’s bachelor pad, that argument  probably will be prevalent on talk radio in coming weeks.  But presumably, if you do your homework, you will learn that the Governor’s Mansion, or “The Residence” as earnest communications professionals have branded it, is a critically important public asset that deserves to be preserved, right?

I’m not convinced. We do need to invest in rennovation of the State Capitol Building and most other older public buildings.  They are historic and heavily used public assets that are well worth preserving for future generations of Minnesotans.  But I’m not persuased that The Residence is worth a $6 million renovation, because I’m not sure it’s needed at all.

NEEDED FOR HOUSING?  Many recent Governors have chosen to live in their pre-Governor homes rather than The Residence.  And if they don’t, many could.  If a future Governor doesn’t have metro area housing available, it would be more prudent for taxpayers to give their Governor a fair lodging allowance than to finance mansion mothballing in between uses.

NEEDED FOR GATHERINGS?  Public officials do use The Residence for receptions and meetings, but there are lots of alternative spots in both public and private buildings.  These are venues that United States Presidents use when they visit Minnesota, so they certainly are not below Governors.

NEEDED TO PRESERVE HISTORY?  Finally, I’m not convinced maintaining The Residence is needed as part of Minnesota’s historical heritage.  The State Capitol falls into this category, but The Residence does not.    The Residence has only been used by Governor’s since 1965, and it hasn’t been witness to any grand historical events.  Trick or treating, yes.  Treaty signing, no.

While Governors do use The Residence for legitimate purposes, nine bedrooms, ten bathrooms, nine fireplaces, a manager, a groundskeeper, a housekeeper, a chef and 16,000 square feet is overkill.  Fiscal times are tough, and the Chief Exectutive could easily meet his housing and hosting needs in much more efficient ways.

At the same time, let’s keep this issue in perspective.  Selling The Residence is not going to balance the budget.  The renovation will only take up a tiny fraction of one percent of the state budget, so this is largely a symbolic issue, not a fiscal one.

But symbolism does matter in governance.  And honestly, with much more efficient housing and meeting space widely available, I just don’t know why politicians would still want to take this public relations hit.

I don’t want to see The Residence deteriorate or get demolished, but that won’t happen.  There aren’t a lot of crack houses on Summit Avenue, so if the taxpayers put 1006 Summit on the market, we can be pretty certain that it will be purchased and maintained by a private citizen.

Bottom line:  The Residence is not as important a public asset as, say, a public school, and we regularly sell public school buildings when they prove to be underutilized.  Lawmakers should sell this underutilized public asset too.

- Loveland

Note:  This post was also featured in Politics in Minnesota’s “Best of the Blogs” and MinnPost’s Blog Cabin.

 

Packers-Vikings Border Battle: Wanna Bet?

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In case you haven’t heard, there is a Vikings-Packers game happening this Sunday that has playoff implications.  A couple people seem to be interested in it.  It’s reportedly an even bigger deal than the Meineke Car Care Bowl.

So, of course, now is the time when rival state politicians customarily make a sporting bet over who will win, to prove to the commoners that they are just regular Joes obsessing about football like everyone else.

Usually the bet is pretty predictable.  If Minnesota wins, Green Bay pays in cheese.  If Green Bay wins, Minnesota pays in pork, or whatever industry the politician wants to court.  Hilarity ensues.  We all can’t get enough of it.  It’s one of the most hackneyed and enduring rituals in American politics.

But how about we spice things up with some more culturally appropriate gifts?

If the Vikings lose, Governor Dayton promises to pay up with…

  • Lifetime supply of Cargill’s breakthrough Lygomme™ ACH Optimum DAIRY-FREE cheese substitute
  • Lifetime supply of 3M Incontinence Care Lotion
  • Surplus Brett Favre Vikings jerseys
  • Hazelden group discount coupons
  • Bachmann-for-President game-worn tri-corner hats

If the Packers lose, Governor Walker promises to pay up with…

  • Lifetime supply of ratebeer.com’s Worst Beer in the World – the pride of Milwaukee,  Olde English 800
  • Complimentary Scott Walker Labor Day address to Minnesota  AFL-CIO
  • Liquid Sex™ ginseng aphrodisiac pills (WI is the nation’s leading producer of ginseng.  Who knew?)
  • Green and gold snowmobile suit tricked out with built-in pony keg and StepSaver™ urethral catheter
  • Photos of the Lombardi Trophies to decorate the Vikings new stadium

So, let the Border Battle Weekend begin.  And on behalf of Vikings fans everywhere, I’d just like say “may the worse team win.”

- Loveland