The most oft-heard line yesterday — the day after election day — was, “Well. THAT could have been worse.” To which my standard reply was, ‘No sh*t’.”
Something happened that almost nobody quite predicted. Certainly not me. (The record will show I played my customary Low Expectation Game with remarkable brilliance.. Especially in this MAGA era, one must guard oneself psychologically. Assume the very worst and be heartened if it’s … not that bad.)
According to exit polls from different areas of the country, abortion — i.e. Republican gaming of the Supreme Court — actually was a driving force for Democrats. Crime and inflation played about as vigorously as “threats to democracy.” And … this is less well established by the current data … voters appear to have reacted quite negatively to what we’ll refer to as the tone of The MAGA Revolution.
While dozens-to-hundreds of utter trolls were re-elected, including Ron Johnson next door in Wisconsin, (and hoo boy, the second guessing there over running a slick, Obama-like black guy), Marjorie Taylor Greene, Paul Gosar, Louie Gohmert, Matt Gaetz, Jim Jordon and various other leading lights of the modern conservative intelligentsia, places like Kentucky (!) voted to protect abortion and both Minnesota and Michigan hit a liberal “trifecta”, winning control of both houses of their legislatures and re-electing Democratic governors … you know those “tyrants” who bought into the COVID-19 hoax.
But while we take a (very) brief moment of comfort in a (slim) majority of sanity, we must turn our attention to … the next election … the campaign for which has already begun. Particularly on the Republican side.
Our raging, policy-averse conservative friends are already trying to digest the one-two punch of Donald Trump’s election night faceplant, and Ron DeSantis’ 20-point wipeout of Democrat(*) Charlie Crist. More to the point, practically overnight DeSantis has been effectively anointed as “The Next Crass White Hope” by Rupert Murdoch and other big money players.
So, that said, let me offer a fresh dystopian prediction.
Trump has already declared he will make “a big announcement” at Mar a Lago next week. Other than blaming Melania for picking Dr. Oz to run in Pennsylvania, the assumption is he will tell the world he is once again ready to return to the golf course, the White House dining room or the Presidency, whichever gives him more “executive time.” The Presaidency being the one that was stolen from him by pedophile satanist liberals and is owed to him through the divine hand of God. (Ask any white evangelical.)
But given DeSantis’ performance Tuesday night, his relative youth, his every-bit-as-cruel theatrics and Trump’s vividly evident failures in this week’s elections, DeSantis now has even less-to-no reason to concede the stage. And as I say, while Logan Roy, excuse me, Rupert Murdoch, has already made his choice known, you can bet other tycoon-level Trump benefactors, like Chicago Cubs owner Todd Ricketts, now see a far, far better bet in DeSantis than another date with a whiny, obese, flagrantly incompetent three-time election loser. (2018, 2020 and 2022 for those of you scoring at home.)
I regard this as a given: As the pile-on against Trump from people like Murdoch continues, DeSantis will move ever closer to announcing his candidacy. Which presents you, me and anyone who can bear to watch with a solid, two-year race to the deepest pit of ugliness and cruelty.
And that’s just what they’ll do to each other. Never mind what they propose for immigrants and anyone who isn’t clustered in The Villages.
DeSantis’ situation is a bit trickier of course, in that he still can’t know how adhesive MAGA nation is to Trump and Trump alone.
DeSantis after all is not a TV celebrity. (Insiders regard him as “a weird dude.” Not that Trump isn’t. But Trump made MAGA laugh.) DeSantis is not a character gullible TV addicted geezers actually believed is fabulously rich, glamorous and all-knowing, despite constant, powerful evidence to the contrary.
Trump drew hundreds of thousands of astonishingly aggrieved chumps out from under rocks, largely because … they saw him playing a tough-talking rich guy on TV. But unlike The Big Money Boys who have keen olfactory lobes for losers and bad bets, pitiful MAGA nation may remain so deluded by Trump’s faux majesty that they will stick with him, and continue tithing their Social Security checks to “Donny 2024” come hell or high water.
Which makes DeSantis’ best play … the “Trump-is-a-Loser” card. “Loser” being the “brand” Trump, he of “so much winning” infamy, hates most.
DeSantis game will be to steadily, persistently convince the saddest of sad Trumpers that their former God-King is now a loser. A creaking hulk incapable of delivering them the meat they yearn for most, which isn’t lower gas prices or less crime but rather constant, ever more ugly slap-downs of woke liberals.
As for Trump, along with needing to hoover up every nickel of chump money he can for the 15-20 legal cases he’s fighting, (all of which should accelerate given his weakened political standing), the two facts we all know with absolute certainty are thEse:
1: Trump is simply not psychologically capable of responding to taunting competition with anything but more and worse ugliness.
And 2: He is can not under any circumstance admit and accept final, total defeat.
Not that DeSantis doesn’t deserve every bit of the ugliness and viciousness Trump will hurl at him.
In my many long years of despising and spleen-venting over cynical politicians, including of course Dick Nixon, I have never been more repulsed by a viable presidential contender than Ron DeSantis. This guy is truly, unequivocally rancid … and so content with being despicable, that ugliness and cruelty is actually what he’s selling.
So yeah, this one wasn’t as bad as it could have been. But if an obscene sh*t show is your idea of background entertainment, that act has already begun.
*Former Republican and treadworn politician Charlie Crist was the best the Democrats could do? Jeeeeezus.)
This made my day!
I glad … I think.
somehow, trump’s new nicknames should be LOSER.
he hates that more than anything, including making fun
of his hair, fake tan or weight. that’s why he had to
come up with the Big Lie.
He’s gone batshit on Truth Social, declaring he had a great night. Reality has never been his thing.
Like most, I was very surprised by the outcome, just because the historical trends for midterms when one party controls Congress and the White House has been incredibly predictive over time. On top of that mega-trend, the current national environment is so politically shitty for Democrats. That is, we’re in charge and there is a 40-year high in global inflation and big surge in violent crime, which are both great issues for conservatives who specialize in race-baiting, blaming, and somehow having credibility on economic issues and opposing “big government spending.”.
The day before the election, I wrote a blog post for here arguing that Democrats got creamed more because of the moment than the messaging. But that draft became unusable because the creaming didn’t happen, yet another humbling reminder about how little I know about contemporary politics, a lesson I started to learn the year Jesse Ventura was elected.
The fact that the historical trends and environment didn’t obliterate Democrats seems due to 1) truly deplorable Trumpy candidates who don’t sell well enough to swing voters; 2) Republicans not having compelling plans for actually fixing the hot problems, inflation and crime; and 3) the loss of abortion rights enraging “what me worry about SCOTUS nominating power?” centrists, particularly in the suburbs. I knew those were all things that would mitigate Democratic losses, but I underestimated their mitigating power.
Democrats still lost a lot — maybe both chambers of Congress — but not nearly as much as historians had every right to believe Dems would lose. In other words, the morons partially saved Democrats from the moment.
And what the Republicans have “won” could be a very double-edged sword. The House GOP nutjobs destroyed Boehner and Ryan, and McCarthy is no Boehner, much less a Ryan (who is an apostate to the idiots). Gaetz and Jordan are already working to eat him alive. But the Democrats have to figure a way to sustain the potency of the abortion/Supreme Court disquiet for the presidential race.
Yup, I am relieved.
DeSantis worries me, partially because I am sure that Trump would lose in 2024. BUt it might be that if there is no Trump on the ticket, a lot of his fans will not turn out to vote. DeSantis might not have the “star power” of Trump (no Apprentice, know what I mean?).
At least we will have plenty of time to chew this all over for the next few years!
And I wish Kevin McCarthy the best! (this will be fun to watch!)
McCarthy — clearly an empty suit — is walking into a nightmare … and that’s assuming he even gets the job.
This is one of your very best, Brian. Thanks for your always insightful thoughts!
A couple of other thoughts:
1. We should thank the Supreme Court for the Dobbs decision. It finally got people to care about abortion (you only miss things when they are being taken from you) and to vote about abortion.
2. We are watching a carefully engineered attempt by the GOP elite to dump Trump and replace him with DeSantis. Will the GOP base go along with this? This could be a hugely consequential thing to watch.
3. What is up with legalized marijuana? Missouri yes, Arkansas no? Forget all the others, but can anybody explain this particular difference to me?
In The Atlantic Peter Wehner looks at the intractability of the MAGA base. He doubts they will instantly follow anyone who is not Trump. To me this suggests DeSantis has to emulate Trump in every imaginable way, including election denying, to gain their trust. If he takes that route he presents himself as yet another “Trump crazy”. But if he doesn’t, he hasn’t got a lot to offer MAGA nation.
Thx, Mary.