Minnesota U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar is an extremely talented politician. In my lifetime, Klobuchar and former Governor Tim Pawlenty were the most skilled Minnesota politicians I’ve observed. Both come across as smart, savvy, genuine, reasonable, warm, sincere, likeable, trustworthy, eloquent, and sensible. That’s why they won a lot of elections.
Moreover, in the presidential caucuses and primaries Klobuchar proved to be perhaps the strongest debater in the very large and talented field. So that sounds like a pretty great Vice Presidential choice for Biden, right?
Biden certainly could sure do much worse, but he also can do better. Here’s why.
Minnesota Is Likely A Biden Win Without Her. Biden probably doesn’t need Klobuchar to win Minnesota. While off-year elections are dicey for Minnesota Democrats, presidential years like 2020 are pretty solid. There hasn’t been any recent head-to-head polling in Minnesota that I know about, but in October the Star Tribune poll had Biden leading Trump by 12 points.
More recently in May, on what looks to be the uber-dominant issue of the 2020 election, a Survey USA/KSTP-TV survey showed that Minnesotans give Trump only a 34% approval rating for his handling of the pandemic crisis, compared to 82% approval for DFL Governor Tim Walz.
Looking at those numbers, Minnesota simply isn’t looking like much of a 2020 battleground state. Obviously, November is still six months away, and Trump will be targetting Minnesota with a big war chest. So Minnesota is not a lock for Biden. But if the overall environment is so bad that a state currently giving Trump pitiful 34% approval ratings goes to Trump, the Electoral College likely will be long gone anyway.
Selecting a proven vote-getter in a swing state such as Wisconsin, Nevada, Texas, Michigan, or Georgia arguably would do more to shake-up the Electoral College map than nailing down the already relatively solid Minnesota.
Staff Abuse Stories Baggage. Long before Klobuchar ran for president, I’ve heard a steady stream of accounts of Klobuchar being childish and abusive to staff. Some of what I have heard has been publicly reported, some has not. These do not seem to outlier stories, as evidenced by Klobuchar having perennially having the highest staff turnover in the U.S. Senate.
This issue died down in the primaries, and it’s nowhere near as consequential as the myriad of Trump sins. But it would get more attention if Klobuchar became the nominee.
I worry that these stories will detract and/or distract from the issues Democrats need to stress in order to defeat Trump. The rule for a veep candidate should be similar to the Hippocratic Oath, “first do no harm.” Through detraction or distraction, new or rehashed staff abuse stories would do some amount of harm to the ticket. Coverage of these cringe-worthy stories would erode perhaps Klobuchar’s biggest political asset, a perception of decency.
Could Lose a Precious Senate Seat. If Klobuchar were Biden’s vice presidential nominee, there would need to be a special election to replace her. If historical trends hold, Democratic turnout in an off-year likely would be much lighter than normal, which could lead to a Republican representing Minnesota in the U.S. Senate. That could prove decisive in the narrowly divided Senate, hurting progressives on important issues, such as Supreme Court justices, a minimum wage increase, health care reform, and taxing the wealthy.
Minnesota has been trending increasingly blue in statewide elections, but it’s still purple, not blue. It’s a state that Hillary Clinton only won by 1.5% in 2016, when Democratic turnout was realtively heavy. In off-year, statewide elections, when Democratic turnout is lighter, Minnesota has proven willing to elect Republicans, such as Tim Pawlenty, Norm Coleman, and Mary Kiffmeyer. Republicans also currently control the Minnesota Senate, giving Minnesota the only divided Legislature in the nation.
Risking the loss of control of the U.S. Senate by putting purple Minnesota up-for-grabs is not worth the relatively modest amount of political benefits Klobuchar would bring to the Biden ticket.
Won’t Inspire Progressive Turnout. To put it mildly, Senator Klobuchar is not exciting to progressives from the Sanders wing of the Democratic Party. That matters a lot. Democrats can’t win without enthusiastic support from progressives driving up voter turnout.
If Senator Klobuchar is selected by Biden, her moderate record will fuel fears of the Sanders supporters that Biden will govern as a milquetoast moderate. It will erode the “more progressive than you think” narrative that the Biden camp has been actively pitching to skeptical Sanders supporters.
Putting a moderate like Klobuchar on the ticket could contribute to many progressives voting third party or failing to vote, which could sink Biden.
Won’t Inspire People of Color Turnout. Democrats also can’t win without enthusiastic support from people of color driving up turnout in key states. People of color will be underwhelmed if Biden chooses a white person to be the 49th consecutive white Vice President. The fact that it’s also a candidate who African American leaders have criticized for a shoddy investigation and prosecution of a potentially innocent African American young person doesn’t help.
Democrats have a lot of dynamic non-white women candidates who might generate enthusiastic turnout of people of color, such as former Georgia House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams, California U.S. Senator Kamala Harris, Nevada U.S. Senator Catharine Cortez Masto, or Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. The turnout those candidates generate could be crucial in November.
I don’t want to make this issue bigger than it is. Vice Presidential nominees don’t tend to have much of an impact on election outcomes. But if Democrats find a candidate that is a bit of a net positive in battleground states, it could make the difference in a razor-thin election. I just don’t think Amy Klobuchar fits that bill.
Joe, this is the most thought through position re. Amy that I have seen. I will share it w/ friends and family. I really agree that we need her in the Senate and that the Progressives would be disappointed by her selection.
Thanks, Mary!
Personally, I’ve been thinking Kamala, because California is a certain Democratic seat, and I think she would help swell African American turnout (which is why I think Hillary lost…).
I also happen to think that the Veep should be someone who ran in the primaries–campaigning is tough, and that kind of national experience is invaluable. No time for on the job training. Veeps rarely make a positive difference in a campaign, but I think they are more likely to have a negative difference, and Biden can’t afford that.
Agree, Peter. She was my first choice for President and is my choice for VP, for the same reasons you articulate.
For people who say “but Biden already has black voters, so he doesn’t need a black running mate,” Biden has the kind of more politically engaged black voters who vote in primaries, not the politically disengaged who are prone to non-voting. Having a dynamic person of color like Harris on the ticket is more likely to grab those kinds of voters than another, yawn, all-white ticket.
SHE has to be black. Jim Clyburn and the black constituents of South Carolina pulled Biden’s bacon out of the fire — or rather, the deep freeze. I’m thinking Harris, too, assuming Biden gets a personal vibe off her. What I find interesting is the sense that this Veep slot has more of a catapult effect to the presidency than previous picks. Whoever gets the job is certain to be handed a very full portfolio of Trump-induced disasters to clean up, meaning a very high profile. Also, at his age Biden has to see his job as “putting the train back on the track” and handing off in 2024 to someone younger. Someone who better be female to counter the “reformed” GOP nominating Nikki Haley.
Yes. I think that there is a good chance that biden doesn’t run in 2024.
Here is a thought experiment: What if Biden were to announce that he was not going to run in 2024, and that the focus of his administration would be to clean up the Trump mess, and then he was going to step aside. Is there a chance that he could try to make a bi-partisan, or non-partisan, case for himself as a unity candidate?
My gut feeling is that there simply are not enough GOP’ers who are not Trumpians who would be swayed by this. Would it work as a unifying ploy for everybody else, though? Are there other voters (basically the ones who were turned off by Hillary, and might still be turned off by Biden) to make this work?
I’ve thought for a while he should do this. For those concerned about his age and capacity, it would at least make it clear that we’re not signing up for an 85 year old President, all the associated cognitive and physical decline. For those anxious to get to a more bold agenda than Biden will embrace, it would create a viable path to leadership that is less incremental, old school, and white. A voluntary term limit would also make him feel slightly more reformy than he currently does.
VP candidates have a very dicey record of delivering their home state, so that isn’t much of a factor.
Now, do not in the least think that I am advocating for Klobs to be VP.
I’m intrigued by Stacey Abrams. She is more dynamic than Harris, and maybe more acceptable to the Sanders wing. (Also, she was in the same graduate school program as me at the U of TX, so she must be brilliant.) But her resume is pretty thin, and I wish she had been pressure-tested in presidential primaries to see how she holds up in that kind of intense campaigning environment.
I agree with you. Her resume is thin, and she seems to be angling for the Presidency (her unwillingness to run for Senate as evidence). I mean, naked ambition isn’t all bed, but…..
I wish she had more to her than a losing campaign.