What if the opponents of Minnesota’s constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage inadvertently helped unseat the first President in history to endorse gay marriage?
Here is how it could happen:
President Obama’s lead looks to be narrowing in Minnesota.
At the same time, a massive and well-organized army of gay rights supporters, looking at razor thin poll margins of their own, is desperate to turn out anyone who will oppose the marriage ban amendment.
To win, marriage rights supporters need amendment opponents to vote, so you would assume they will go to great lengths — mailings, calls, door-knocking, rides to the polls — to make sure that happens.
Gay rights supporters need to turn out every single vote, including (cue the scary music) the 15% of amendment opponents who are Republicans.
Because a recent Star Tribune survey found that 93% of Minnesota Republicans are voting against President Obama, turning out pro-gay rights Republicans en masse could hurt the President’s reelection prospects in a close election.
And if turning out pro-gay rights, anti-Obama voters caused Minnesota to unexpectedly sneak into the Romney column, the electoral college math could get much more difficult for the President than it currently looks.
And so the question becomes, is Minnesotans United for All Families’ get-out-the-vote (GOTV) drive a treat, or a trick?
Note: This post was also featured as a “best of the best” in MinnPost’s Blog Cabin feature.